Raaz / research preview
World pressure
A historical lens on the conditions around upheaval. Select a country to see its estimated annual risk and the evidence behind it.
Global view
The next calendar year
2027 country-year estimates use 2025 inputs released in 2026. Shorter horizons need separate monthly validation.
Explore the record
Where pressure gathers
Read the method
What the gauges mean
Actual outcomes
War means a country recorded at least 1,000 battle deaths in a year. Revolution means a qualifying episode began. A significant downturn means real GDP per person fell at least 3% in a year.
A historical baseline
Each country estimate uses earlier conflict and revolution history, income, growth, and inflation. The bands compare risk to the historical rate across covered countries: Calm <0.65×, Watch <1.35×, Elevated <2.5×, Severe ≥2.5×.
Backtested before display
Models are trained before the evaluation period and tested on later country-years. A percentage is shown only when its Brier score beats a simple historical-frequency forecast. Read the full methods and sources.